Our tipster Jones Knows previews the weekend with his Premier League tips, analysis and predictions.
Winners last weekend for Jones Knows?
- Liverpool draw with Man City 3/1
- Over 3.5 goals in Saints vs Chelsea 3/1
- Tottenham win at zero 3/1
- Brentford beat West Ham 7/4
- Brentford win 2-0
- Newcastle, Chelsea, Leeds all winners
Tottenham v Brighton, Saturday 12:30 p.m.
I’m always drawn to Brighton’s shooting market when they come up against one of the Champions League chasers as the markets tend to underestimate their lines.
In nine matches against the ‘big six’ this season, Graham Potter’s side have averaged 12.1 shots per 90 minutes, playing with their usual adventure and bravery but without much clinical advantage. But it’s this lack of clinical advantage that means they’re always chasing the game, which has a huge effect on their need to shoot.
Although I don’t see them having enough quality to get a result in the match market, it’s a matter of taking your pick from Brighton players with Leandro Trossard (4/5 with Sky Bet), Enock Mwepu (4 /5), Danny Welbeck (4/5) and Lewis Dunk (7/2) all have eye-catching plays to register two or more shots.
However, my eyes are drawn to Alexis Mac Allister, who is also 4/5 with Sky Bet for two or more shots.
He sprinkled the opposing goal with strikes. No Premier League player without a goal in the last six games has managed more shots on goal than Mac Allister (25), including seven in the 0-0 draw with Norwich. As long as he starts in his usual position right next to the attacker, he is well placed to have two or more shots on goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Alexis Mac Allister will have two or more hits (5/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester United vs Norwich, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This may be the weekend Manchester United fans will put one in the bank with the other half and make that trip to IKEA rather than suffer more torture.
Speaking of wardrobes, I really want Harry Maguire to score.
One area Norwich struggle in that isn’t too obvious from the raw numbers is their weakness in defending from set pieces. They have conceded just eight goals from corners this season – a fair return – but the underlying numbers paint a different picture. They dispatched an expected goal figure of 16.68 from set pieces, excluding penalties – only Leicester posted a higher return.
Opposition players took 145 shots from set pieces against Norwich – no team conceded more. This makes our old friend Maguire a game of prizes. It can be backed at 7/1 with Sky Bet to find the net.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Harry Maguire to score (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Southampton vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm – PLAY THE SUPER 6 HERE!
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s teams rely on momentum. When they fly, they fly. When they are bad, they are very bad. Having lost just once in 10 games, they are now on a four-game losing streak in five Premier League games – and they got really spanked by Chelsea last weekend.
This may be exactly what Arsenal need after back-to-back defeats, but I wouldn’t rush to back them on 10/11 with Sky Bet. For the purposes of a prediction, I’ll side with them to get through a tight game with a one-goal win.
This goal has a good chance of coming from a free kick. Saints have conceded a Premier League record 12 headed goals this season, including in the relevant game when Gabriel returned home.
This sparked my interest in the Arsenal defender in the player shootout markets, where he is rated at 5/6 to have a shot on goal. The Arsenal defender, who has three goals to his name this season, is an aggressive set-piece striker and has taken 26 shots on goal this season.
That equates to just under one shot per game, so basic math tells you that against a team that Arsenal are the favorites to win and are close to firing 14 shots in the whole team, the probability that Gabriel gets one should be bigger. chance of landing than the available 5/6. His goalscoring prices of 18/1 to score first and 7/1 anytime are also worth considering.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Gabriel will have at least one hit (10/11 with Sky Bet -Bet Here!)
Watford vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY THE SUPER 6 HERE!
It’s hard to believe Watford finished above Brentford in the Sky Bet Championship last season. This shows you how important it is to start from the start with savvy recruiting backed by a sensible business model. Brentford succeeded. Not Watford.
Roy Hodgson’s lopsided and flaky side have won just two of their last 20 games in all competitions and have amassed the fewest points at home (7) of any side in English football’s top four divisions.
Meanwhile, Brentford are the first promoted side to win 10 or more Premier League games in their first season since Bournemouth in 2015/16, including five of their last six. They head here full of confidence after deservedly beating Chelsea and West Ham, so 6/4 with Sky Bet for another win is an easy argument to make. I’m still looking for value and happy to invest in Bryan Mbeumo scoring in a 7/1 away win with Sky Bet.
Ivan Toney is making headlines, scoring eight goals in his last eight Premier League appearances, but Mbeumo also brings a lot to the table. He’s had 16 shots in his last five games, which has generated an expected goalscoring figure of 1.8, making his goalscoring price quite generous.
What’s more, he’s hit the woodwork seven times in the Premier League this season – the most with Leeds’ Raphinha. It is due a bit of fortune in this regard. Back it up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Brentford win and Bryan Mbeumo scores (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Leicester, Sunday 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports
Dan Burn is a friend of mine when it comes to overpriced centre-backs in a variety of markets. He’s not quite on my dream centre-back dinner list just yet (Shane Duffy, Harry Maguire, Gareth McAuley, Yerry Mina and Craig Dawson if you ask) but that could change if he delivers this weekend. end.
The Geordie boy has been sensational since arriving from Brighton, but what would put the icing on the cake would be a goal at St James’ Park – every fan’s dream. I think Sunday could be burn-up day against this Leicester defense which has improved with the return of Jonny Evans and Wesley Fofana but which still does not convince me at set pieces. The Foxes have conceded 16 Premier League goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) this season – the most with Leeds.
Good quality chances have fallen Burn’s way in his nine starts for Newcastle, equating to an expected goal figure of 0.73. The tallest player in the Premier League to ever score a header this season and playing for a side that have scored 13 of their 34 goals this season from set pieces, should he really be 25/1 to score any another ? I would say no. It’s value play to score a header in a tight affair.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Dan Burn scores a header (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham v Burnley, Sunday 2.15pm
If it was a chase, Burnley fell way behind their required race pace. They can no longer block and push for singles. It’s time for Sean Dyche’s men to swing towards the limits if they are to catch Everton and Leeds above them.
Dummies won’t be enough. They need to add to their pathetic tally of just four wins – and this game will be seen as an opportunity to do so with West Ham’s Europa League commitments causing problems with their Premier League form.
This shift in mentality to play ‘must win’ football over the past two matches has had a positive effect on Burnley’s attacking metrics – something that will continue to increase over the coming weeks. The games have been much more open with their last two games with five goals scored and an expected total goals of 8.71 when the two teams come together.
Traveling to face a West Ham side whose games at the London Stadium average 3.13 goals and who have seen both teams score 75% of the time this season makes this game look like a goal heavy hitter. The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals, which I think is too low. That means we need to attack overs with confidence in Evens.
I also want to add Burnley’s number of corners into the mix. Dyche’s side won nine against Everton and seven in their loss to Norwich – another sign that their attacking intent has gone up a notch. Only Aston Villa and Southampton have won more Premier League corners since March 1 than Burnley and that included a game with Manchester City where they won just one. Take this game out and they average 7.2 corners per 90 minutes.
Therefore, Sky Bet’s lines on the corners of Burnley are worth supporting. Those who like to beat short prices should take a look at Burnley winning four corners at 4/6 with Sky Bet as West Ham have conceded at least four corners in their nine Premier League games, but I’m pushing the boat out a bit further by attacking the line six or more corners at a gigantic 3/1 with Sky Bet.